More and more markers are appearing on the map of Europe: cyber incidents, airspace violations, suspicious naval maneuvers, and outright attacks on infrastructure. The Ukrainian project “The Everywhere War” places these operations – which might be perceived as isolated events – into a broader context: as part of Russia’s sub-threshold war against Europe.
The boundaries between war and peace, as we have long relied on them, no longer apply today. Among those working hard to convince even those with no direct experience of combat of this reality is Lesia Ogryzko, co-founder and director of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, a Ukrainian think tank focused on security and defence. “This war is not just about Ukraine; it’s about all of Europe,” she explains during our interview in a bustling lobby in downtown Kyiv.
The online tool “The Everywhere War: Sub-Threshold Warfare Tracker”, which the Center developed, shows that Europe is already facing a confrontation with Russia – despite the blurred line between war and peace – and that if Europe does not begin to prepare as a whole, it will be caught off guard by the scale of the crisis it will face.
“When you’re having to do with an enemy for whom international humanitarian law is nonexistent as a concept or just empty words, you need, as a society, to be prepared that war will be waged against your energy system, logistics, against local self-government, against communities, against your business, against telecommunication systems, etc.,” Ogryzko warns.
To undermine European security and deter allies
The interactive database documents military provocation, acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, and other operations targeting European nations since 2022, based on verified open-source intelligence. It is a tool that helps translate the abstract concept of hybrid threats into a concrete form. It allows us to see, in context, the geographic distribution of incidents, the domains in which they occur – from airspace to maritime areas to cyberspace – and the pattern that links these incidents.
It is easy to publicly downplay an individual event: someone damaged a cable, a drone strayed off course, a system went down, sabotage cannot be definitively confirmed. But when the dots start to connect, a picture of systematic pressure emerges. According to Ogryzko, it is precisely the sheer number and geographic scope of these operations that show this is not a matter of sporadic incidents, but rather a systematic effort by Russia to undermine European security and deter Kyiv’s allies from supporting it.
Europe’s investment in its own security
As the Ukrainian security expert also points out, the perception of Ukraine as merely a recipient of aid increasingly fails to reflect reality. According to her, a new reality is gradually being reflected in the language used by Western partners. It is no longer simply a matter of aid to a country under attack, but of a contribution to the collective struggle. Ukraine is no longer merely the subject of a moral obligation and solidarity. It is one of the new pillars of European security – and an investment in the form of time that Europe gains, in the knowledge it will need, and in the ability to understand how Russia wages war today.
After all, defence does not begin the moment soldiers appear at the borders. It begins much earlier: with the preparedness of institutions, local authorities’ contingency plans, and people knowing what to do in the first hours of an emergency; with the resilience of infrastructure; and with the ability of businesses to continue operating. But it also stands or falls on trust between the state and its citizens, and on media literacy.
“You look at the Ukrainian response and understand that this is a very unique civil-military cooperation where you have this very horizontal response of a society,” explains Ogryzko.
This is not about spreading panic or frightening society with the prospect of war. It is about the ability to speak truthfully to citizens about the risks, and to prepare the state, local authorities, businesses and individuals for crisis scenarios. The Ukrainian experience shows that, in a crisis, the state cannot rely solely on central institutions. It needs horizontal networks: volunteers, civil society and community organisations, as well as businesses, analysts and people who know what to do when the electricity, internet or logistics fail, or when everyday services become temporarily unavailable.
Today, Ukraine is not merely demonstrating courage to Europe. It is also demonstrating an infrastructure for survival, a defence that goes beyond the army – the defence of the 21st century.